metaculus.com - Metaculus

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Description: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

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Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.

Learn about tournament scoring and the leaderboard.\r\n \r\nIf your organization is interested in running a forecasting tournament on a given topic, contact us.

In an increasingly technical and online world, the ability to hit a button and cause untold physical and societal damage has never been so easy. As countries jockey for position in global leadership through complex maneuvers of politics and diplomatic relations, there have been increasing movements in nuclear armament. Understanding the risks associated with nuclear armament and warfare, and the causal pathways that could lead to their use, is the current focus of our Flourishing Futures Cause.

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