Description: A repository for works continuing in the tradition of Carl Menger
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Weekends have been removed from the data series as of 13th September 2020 as some bitcoin futures exchanges are closed. Swaps will be published from Monday to Friday at 16:15 UCT as usual.
From 20th June, $-to-bitcoin swaps advanced from +0.55% to +2.9% as of yesterday. On 10th July, $-to-bitcoin swaps overtook bitcoin-to-$ swaps and subsequently bitcoin has advanced from $9,278 then to $10,789 as of writing. However , as $-to-bitcoin swaps have been advancing, bitcoin-to-$ swaps have also been advancing rapidly indicating that this rally in bitcoin is likely to be ephemeral . Message from 22/02/20 is re-iterated.
Merry new year. From the last update of October 30th, 2019, when bitcoin-to-$ swaps were 1.36% and $-to-bitcoin swaps at 1.41%, we have witnessed advances in both to 2.52% and 2.20% respectively as of 21st February 2020. What does this mean? Essentially, for any interest into bitcoin, there's an equal and opposite interest out of bitcoin. Furthermore, where bitcoin-to-$ swaps were lower than $-to-bitcoin swaps at 30th October, they're higher as of yesterday. All of this points to substantial price declines