Prime à l’urne – Là où on vulgarise, observe et traduit les élections
Description: Election analysis and forecasting
by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher, 3 rd May 2023.
Much of the speculation about what might happen in the English local elections this week has focused on how many seats each party could or should gain or lose. The Conservatives have seemingly accepted an analysis for the Local Government Chronicle that they could lose 1,000 seats – presumably in the hope that they will do better than that – while Labour have suggested they might win 400 – presumably anticipating they will gain rather more. We can expect many a judgement to be cast on Friday on the basis
However, given that these elections are held under single or multi-member plurality, seats won and lost can be a poor guide to how well a party has done in the ballot box. A party whose vote has fallen less than that of their principal rivals may gain seats even though it has lost votes. A third party whose vote is geographically spread may make a substantial advance in votes yet reap little reward in terms of seats. Meanwhile, seats won and lost only provide an indication of whether a party has lost or gai
Prime à l’urne – Là où on vulgarise, observe et traduit les élections